Bush may have zero percent support in Iowa



In the most recent Iowa GOP Poll, Jeb Bush polled at 6%. But the poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5.5%. That means Bush may be as high as 11.5%, or as low as .5%, which is just about zero. Isn't that incredible for the "inevitable" $120 million dollar man, who now may be at zero percent in Iowa, and not doing much better (only 8%) in New Hampshire? Do you think it would help if Bush ran some Spanish language ads calling himself a Conservative?

The secondary story in all this is that Scott Walker may also be at zero in the polls in Iowa

Walker went next, as in early August he attempted to battle with Trump in Iowa. Trump crushed him, ripped him apart, and seemingly took all of his supporters in Iowa and New Hampshire. Back in February, when Trump wasn’t even registering in the NBC-Marist polling, Walker stood at 15 percent in New Hampshire. That slipped to 12 percent in July. Now he’s at just 4 percent. Meanwhile, Trump—who wasn’t included in their February poll, but registered at 21 percent in July—now stands at 28 percent. Between July and now, Walker has lost 8 percent in the Granite State while Trump has picked up 7 percent. The same phenomenon happened in Iowa. While Trump wasn’t included in the February polling, Walker stood at 15 percent. In July, Walker registered at 19 percent—whereas Trump was at 17 percent—but now Walker is at just 5 percent to Trump’s 29 percent.

As a state bordering Wisconsin, Walker had the clear homestate advantage. Now, conceivably, he could be at zero (or, as low as -.5%, if negative poll ratings were possible), because all of his multiple positions on illegal aliens and birthright citizenship.

And none of the other politicians who are "conservatives" have done well--not Rand Paul, not Mike Huckabee, not Rick Perry. Trump and Ben Carson are at 51% in Iowa when combined.

Voters are sick of politicians who promise one thing and fail to deliver. That's why outsiders are most attractive. The danger of outsiders, of course, is that they have no past legislative history. And when their history of statements leans towards Democrats, like Trump, or Carson, it makes choosing a constitutional conservative difficult.

The one politician with a conservative history, of course, is Ted Cruz. He's far from perfect on all issues, (such as voting for the Iran enabling legislation and the initial version of Obamatrade), but he has not just reliable on a wide range of issues but a leader on many of them, like the fight against Obamacare, against funding Obamacare's amnesty, against abortion funding, and many other issues.

But my sense is that Cruz is not going to rise until Donald Trump falls. And Cruz won't attack Trump because he doesn't want to alienate his supporters. It will be interesting to see if the Bush/Walker/Rubio/Chamber of Commerce/Club for Growth blitzkrieg expected this month damages Trump. If it does, Cruz will be the primary beneficiary; if not, incredible as it may sound, we could have a Trunp nominee.



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Kasich: Syrian war could be over if we funded Al Qaeda


In Revenge of the Sith, the Emperor replaces Count Dooku, his elderly apprentice played by Christopher Lee, with a younger, more vigorous apprentice with puppydog eyes named Anakin Skywalker. It looks like GOP insiders and the Chamber of Commerce crowd have done much the same thing. Bush was supposed to be their annointed candidate but is faltering, and their backup candidate, Chris Christie, seems stuck in the polls. So they have chosen a new and more powerful apprentice for Bush, in the form of John Kasich.
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When someone challenges the Speaker of the House (by a technical procedure known as declaring the office of the speakership "vacant"), usually the leadership holds what is basically a vote of confidence immediately to show that a majority of the members still support the Speaker. Otherwise it raises doubts about whether the Speaker still has the support of the majority of the members.
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I love it when an event happens and then the candidates comment on the same situation because it gives us insights which allow us to better compare them. I did this a few days ago comparing Ted Cruz's solid answer on global warming to Carly Fiorina's considerably more tepid one, and today we have another opportunity when both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump have commented on the case of the jailed Kentucky county clerk who went to jail rather than issue marriage licenses to homosexual couples.
Here's what Ted Cruz had to say:

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Kentucky clerk Kim Davis was jailed for refusing to issue marriage licenses to homosexuals, citing her deep religious beliefs in objection. But since five justices of the Supreme Court have decided that homosexual marriage will be the law of the land, Davis has been jailed for her refusal to obey.
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