$5 million dollars later, Jeb Bush is up .3% in New Hampshire



I finally see a path to victory for Jeb Bush. After his suggestively named PAC, Right to Rise, spent nearly $5 million on ads in New Hampshire, Jeb rose .3% in the polls.

In New Hampshire, seen by many as a must-win for Bush, Bush and the Right to Rise super PAC backing him have spent at least $4.8 million on TV and radio to support him since early September. One ad-tracking firm produced an analysis for POLITICO that showed pro-Bush spots in the past three weeks have occupied about 60 percent of the political ad air-time in the state. Bush’s numbers have moved from 9 perrcent to 8.7 percent since the ad blitz began, according to the Real Clear Politics averages of polls in the GOP primary.

So at that rate, if Bush wanted to get a 30% bump in the polls, he'd need to spend only $480 million dollars, assuming that increasing sums didn't produce decreasing results over time. So Bush may have a path to victory, all he needs is another $400 million dollars--for a victory in New Hampshire, that is. He'd have to spend similar sums in every other state.

Of course, another way to look at this is that the $5 million spent has not helped Bush but hurt him. Since polls have a margin of error greater than .3%, it is not only possible that the increased spending had no effect, but it is entirely possible that Bush may have gone down in the polls as a result. Let's say that when Bush was theoretically 8.7% in the polls, he was actually at 12%

Then when the the later polls estimated his support at 9%, let's say he was down to 6%, certainly a statistical possibility. It is possible, therefore, that while polling showed Bush going up from 8.7% to 9%, he may have actually gone down from 12% to 6%. In that case the Bush ads are actually hurting Bush, because as people see more of Jeb they want to see less of him. Even declaring himself the "ultimate disruptor" hasn't helped him.

Let's be serious. All the money in the world won't help promote a candidate with widely disliked views. Just as no on will buy potato chips that taste like gasoline, or underwear made of sand paper, no one is buying a candidate whose signature issue is amnesty for illegal aliens.

And Marco Rubio has the same problem. What will the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove do if their preferred candidate doesn't win? I have a sneaking suspicion that they will secretly back Hillary, whose support for big government and illegal aliens suits much of their big business agenda.

(Abridged version originally published in AT)



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