Prediction markets say Rubio most likely GOP nominee



Betting and prediction markets say that Marco Rubio is most likely to be the Republican nominee. There. Now how much are you willing to put down on Marco's candicacy? I personally will have to look into some of these markets to see if there is a way to short him.

It’s official: Jeb Bush is no longer the leading contender to become the Republican candidate for president. Instead, prediction markets now rate Marco Rubio as far more likely to get the nod.

One broad measure of the betting markets puts Mr. Rubio’s chances at 34 percent versus Mr. Bush’s at 23 percent.

Traders at Betfair, which is the world’s largest betting exchange, but which doesn’t take bets from Americans, rate Mr. Bush a 20 percentchance to win the nomination, while Mr. Rubio is given a 29 percentchance. Over at PredictIt... traders have moved more decisively, giving Mr. Bush a 24 percent chance, compared with Mr. Rubio’s 40 percent.

The outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson continue to dominate the polls, each well above 20 percent in national polls, while typically neither Mr. Rubio nor Mr. Bush registers double-digit support.

Yet prediction markets see neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Carson as likely to win the nomination. Mr. Trump is rated around a one-in-six chance to win, with Mr. Carson’s chances at about half that.

The different assessment of prediction markets relative to pollsters is a bet that public opinion remains largely in flux, and that neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Carson has built a reliable political coalition or an enduring political organization.

I guess this goes to show that even markets can be wrong. Marco Rubio speaks in a rapidfire, nervous manner, even when he isn't sweating. He was a leading proponent of amnesty, and continues to support it for so-called Dreamers, supported the Iran Deal legislation, runs dopey ads where he talks about football, and looked like he was about to cry when John Boehner stepped down . I don't see how, in this environment, he gets nominated.

Now, it is true that Trump and Carson have not built an "organization". But that hasn't seemed to stop their rise in the polls. I personally believe Carson is too soft-spoken to be nominated. But I think if either Trump or Carson fall, one's support will go to the other, and if both fall, much of their support will go to Ted Cruz. The voting base of establishment Republicans (Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Christie, etc.) doesn't seem to total more than 25%. I don't see how Marco Rubio gets nominated under these circumstances.

If I were a betting man, I would say at this moment the nominee is going to be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz (who does have an organization). I think Rubio strikes people as being too unsure of himself. Carson is as I've said too soft-spoken. That may help him win a plurality in Iowa but I don't think will get him enough national support. As for Jeb, he's too closely associated with amnesty. So I think it is Trump, unless people pull back and decide they want a political figure, in which case I think they will turn to Cruz.

If you were to bet, who would you bet on, and how much?

(Abridged version originally published in AT)



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