GOP primary calendar and voting rules for each state



Below is a chart showing the 2016 Republican Presidential Primary dates by state, along with the voting rules for each state. Generally, states either have a winner take all system, where the candidate with the greatest plurality gets all the delegates; or they have a combination of statewide winner take all with winner take all by congressional district; or they have proportional voting rules.

A few states like Wyoming, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota choose unbound delegates, who are not obligated to support a particular candidate, so anything can happen there.

There are a total of 2470 delegates to the convention and 1,236 are needed to win.

I have simplified a few things in the chart below. In each state anywhere from zero to three of the total delegates are chosen but not bound to their candidate, but for simplicity's sake I included them all in the state totals. Different states have differen threshholds for winning any delegates proportionally, usually 15 or 20%, and some states elect delegates who then declare for candidates. I treat that last group as "proportional" for categorization purposes rather than "winner take all".

I also feel that states that decide candidates by "winner take all/congressional district" are more likely to be like "winner take all" states then they are to be similar to proportional voting states, since a candidate's supporters are less likely to be mostly aggregated in individual congressional districts of a state (though in some cases it will happen).

Proportional Voting Rules

Date

# of delegates

Iowa

1-Feb-16

30

New Hampshire

9-Feb-16

23

Nevada

23-Feb-16

30

Alabama

1-Mar-16

50

Alaska

1-Mar-16

28

Arkansas

1-Mar-16

40

Georgia

1-Mar-16

76

Massachusetts

1-Mar-16

42

Minnesota

1-Mar-16

38

Oklahoma

1-Mar-16

43

Tennesse

1-Mar-16

58

Texas

1-Mar-16

155

Vermont

1-Mar-16

16

Virginia

1-Mar-16

49

Kansas

5-Mar-16

40

Kentucky

5-Mar-16

45

Louisiana

5-Mar-16

46

Maine

5-Mar-16

23

Puerto Rico

6-Mar-16

23

Hawaii

8-Mar-16

19

Idaho

8-Mar-16

32

Michigan

8-Mar-16

59

Mississippi

8-Mar-16

39

DC

12-Mar-16

12

Guam

12-Mar-16

9

North Carolina

15-Mar-16

72

American Samoa

22-Mar-16

9

Utah

22-Mar-16

40

Colorado

9-Apr-16

37

New York

19-Apr-16

95

Rhode Island

26-Apr-16

19

West Virginia

10-May-16

34

Oregon

17-May-16

28

Washington State

27-May-16

44

New Mexcio

7-Jun-16

24

Total 1427

Winner Take All

Date

# of delegates

Florida

15-Mar-16

99

Marianas Islands

15-Mar-16

9

Ohio

15-Mar-16

66

US Virgins

19-Mar-16

9

Arizona

22-Mar-16

58

Delaware

26-Apr-16

16

Maryland

26-Apr-16

38

Nebraska

10-May-16

36

Montana

7-Jun-16

27

New Jersey

7-Jun-16

51

South Dakota

7-Jun-16

29

total 438

Winner take all by State/CD

Date

# of delegates

South Carolina

20-Feb-16

50

Illinois

15-Mar-16

69

Missouri

15-Mar-16

52

Wisconsin

5-Apr-16

42

Connecticut

26-Apr-16

28

Indiana

3-May-16

57

California

7-Jun-16

172

total 470

Wyoming (29), ND Caucuses (28) unbound March 1

Most of Pennsylvania's 71 delegates are also unbound Apr 26th

Looking at the chart we can see that there are 1427 delegates decided proportionally; 438 by winner take all; and 470 by state winner take all combined with congressional district winner take all, as well as 128 unbound delegates from PA, Wyoming, and South Dakota. (But remember that as part of the numbers above, many of the other states also have 0-3 unbound delegates.)

So where does that leave Donald Trump? If the primaries were held today, and he got 25% of the vote, he'd take 356 of the 1427 proportionally decided delegates. With that 25%, which would be the largest plurality of any candidate, he'd take all 438 winner take all delegates (including all of Florida's, heh heh).**** And he'd probably take most of the 470 "winner take all by CD" states, say 400 of those. That's a total of 356 + 438 + 400 which equals 1194 delegates. Figure he gets another 36 from the 128 delegates of the three uncommitted states. That brings him up to about 1230.

1236 are needed to be nominated. That means by this very, very rough estimate, if the polls don't change, that Donald Trump is just on the edge of getting what he needs to avoid a brokered convention and to be nominated. He also needs to win a plurality in every state, even in some southern states where polls have showed Ben Carson ahead.

What conclusion can you draw from any of this? If Trump goes up or down even 3% or 4% in national polling, that will pretty much decide whether there will be a brokered convention or not.



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