The current state of the GOP presidential race



Ted Cruz is surging! Ben Carson is sinking! But all through this, Jeb Bush chugs along with his little five percent, the little engine that could (la maquina se puede). We need him to stay in the race. If Bush quits, all his support will go to Marco Rubio. They have a very similar base of support, not merely geographically, but ideologically. Both were big amnesty supporters for illegal aliens; the only difference is that Bush is still open about his continued support for it, while Marco doesn't dwell (and yet, Marco still, even today, quietly, wants to continue amnesty for "Dreamers").

With Marco at about 12% in the polls, if Jeb pulls out, it's a sure bet that Bush's 5% will go to Marco. That brings him up to 17%. What's worse, Christie and Kasich each have 3%. When they pull out, their combined 6% will probably migrate to Marco as well. That brings up the GOP establishment percentage to about 23%. In a very splintered primary electorate, that may be enough to win some primaries. (Though the 8% of Carly/Huckabee/Rand will probably migrate to Cruz or Trump... mostly).

That's why we need Jeb Bush to stay in the race.

Meanwhile, Ted Cruz is surging in Iowa, seemingly at the expense of Ben Carson, jumping to second place with 21%, if the latest poll (CBS/YouGov) is to be believed.

The leftist nerds at fivethirtyeight.com have come up with interesting statistics which show that, statistically speaking, nearly half of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire don't make up their minds until the week before they vote. Think about that. That means that all the polling right now is extremely tentative. That means, more than two months out from Iowa, that Trump, who seems invincible, isn't guaranteed to win anything. And yet the polls, for what little they do say, have shown him on top for an unprecedented period, so you can't totally discount them.

Here's an interesting theory: Ted Cruz does not need the most votes in order to win the GOP nomination. If Donald Trump doesn't get enough votes to be nominated outright, his goose may be cooked.

As things stand now there will be four candidates with substantial numbers of delegates: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson (maybe). If there is no candidate who has a majority of the delegates, the delegates of at least two of these four candidates will have to cooperate to nominate someone. So who will cooperate with whom? Technically, the delegates will be free to decide on their own after the first ballot, but chances are they will be influenced by the preferences of their initial nominee.

In that case Trump may have a hard time getting delegates of other candidates to support him. Trump has personally criticized Rubio, calling him a lightweight (I agree), immature, sweaty, and having bad hair. I can't see Rubio's delegates liking that.

Similarly, I can't see Ben Carson's delegates liking their first choice being called "pathologically ill", or having his religion questioned, or being called low energy, all of which Trump has done.

Now Ted Cruz, on the other hand, has made much fewer enemies. In a contest between him and Trump, I suspect Carson delegates would go to Cruz because Cruz hasn't criticized Carson like Trump has. As for Rubio, I am sure he hates both Trump and Cruz, but I am willing to bet that he hates Trump much, much more.

With the support of Rubio and Carson delegates, I think Cruz, even if he doesn't have the most delegates, is in a strong position to outmaneuver Trump, if it came to a brokered convention.

For the record, I think Trump, by far, has the best proposals for securing the border and dealing with illegal immigration. But I think Cruz has the best record on nearly everything else like tax plans and judgeships. Either would be interesting presidents, and vast improvements over what we have had in the past 15 years.

(Abridged version originally published in AT)



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University bans yoga for promoting western colonialism


If you see a woman in tights smile as she leans back and spreads her legs, what's the first thing that comes to your mind?
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Brown U. admits to fomenting racial hatred against blacks, offers reparations


First there was slavery. Then there was Jim Crow. Now that we finally thought we've got that all behind us, we have to deal with the inherent racism in ultra-liberal Ivy League schools. I am personally ashamed to say that Harvard Law School's logo, of three bushels of wheat, is the ultimate symbol of racism against blacks. And Yale University isn't much better. They don't have enough black psychiatrists, white students don't have to take Black Studies classes, and dormitory administrators are called "masters", undoubtedly a clear throwback to the days when Yale had large plantations in New Haven filled with slaves forced to pick cotton.
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Belgium on high alert for attack from infants, widows, and non-Muslims


Belgium is on high alert for a terror attack. But who exactly are they worried about committing such an attack? President Obama has characterized middle eastern refugees as "three year old infants"; we are told that many are widows; and the Grand Mufti of Chappaqua, Hillary Hussein Clinton, assures us that not a single Muslim has any involvement in terrorism, therefore terrorists must be something else.
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Donald Trump plans to bypass courts when deporting Illegals


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Would liberals mind living next to Mosques?


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Liberals fear world running out of Chocolate and Vanilla


Consider, for a moment, what will happen the day the last piece of chocolate is mined. When the last piece of chocolate is taken out of the last chocolate mine, we will have zero chocolate left. There will be no solar chocolate, or wind powered chocolate. Just no chocolate. It's not as if chocolate grows on trees... or does it?
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Refugees can get permanent legal status after one year


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GOP primary calendar and voting rules for each state


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