Marco Rubio probably has about 150 delegates before first vote cast


In my previous analysis of the rules each state is using to select delegates to the Republican National Convention, I made note of the fact that generally each state was sending three delegates to the convention who are uncommitted. That's what I knew then, as far as it went.

But Debbie Schlussel has cast some light on who these roughly 150 delegates (roughly 50 states times three) are. She says that the three delegates from each state typically are the state party chairman and two RNC members. In other words, members of the GOP establishment.

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Schlussel hypothesizes that these delegates will be for Bush, and that is why Bush is staying in the race.

For example, Michigan’s Republican Party chief is an inexperienced liberal RINO chick who got the job because she exited the right [Schlussel uses an explicit word for birthing body part]. Ronna Romney McDaniel is the niece of Mitt Romney. Her mother is Ronna Romney,... who was once married to Scott Romney (her father), the liberal Republican, pro-abortion brother of Mitt. Ronna Junior is in the tank for Jeb. And so are most of her ilk. That’s 150 delegates who can and will mostly vote against Trump when this goes to the convention.

That part I don't fully agree with. Bush is so low in the polls that he seems unlikely to win any delegates. I think the establishment will huddle behind Marco Rubio, who is as close a thing there is to an establishment candidate in the top four--Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Rubio. Therefore I think Rubio will garner their support.

Schlussel also makes the point that the walking dead campaigns of Christie and Kasich will offer their delegates to Bush. Again, not quite right. I think Christie and Kasich will drop out with few or zero delegates, but their support (about 5%), will move to Rubio. And if Bush drops out after he places fourth or fifth in New Hampshire, Rubio will gain another 5%.

This additive strength, together with the 150 insider delegates, could give him quite an advantage. Of course, it takes 1236 delegates to be nominated. Schlussel is convinced that if no one wins after the first ballot, that Trump delegates who are fifth columnists or easily bribable will turn to an establishment candidate. That I am less sure about.

But I do think that Rubio starts with some built in advantages that aren't reflected in his current third or fourth place showing in the polls.

(Abridged version originally published in AT)



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