Why Donald Trump's poll numbers may actually be understated



Politico has a thoughtful piece explaining why Donald Trump's lead may not be as large as it seems. Reading the article carefully, I came away with the opposite conclusion.

According to the latest polls, Donald Trump is in the lead with anywhere between 27% and 36% of the vote, quite a wide gap, depending on which poll you look at.

The big problem with polls is you don't know exactly who is going to vote, and many people who are polled don't end up voting.

Republican pollster B.J. Martino parsed the new CNN poll that has Trump looking all but unbeatable at this stage: “They have a sample of 1,020 adults — and 445 of those they say constitute the Republican primary universe. Basically, their poll is saying 43.6 percent of all Americans adults are voting in a Republican primary nationwide. When you go back to 2012, it’s 12.2 percent.”

Even when polls narrow themselves to likely voters, they still get it wrong. That's why Matt Bevin is now the governor of Kentucky when all the polls had him losing. And it's why the Republicans picked up a few extra Senate seats in 2014 (notably in North Carolina), where they were projected not to win in all the polls. The pollsters simply couldn't reliably identify who was going to vote and who was not.

The problem only gets worse in primaries, for three reasons. First, primaries often have smaller turnout than general elections, making it even harder to locate the actual voters. Second, some states let independents and non-affiliated voters vote. In New Hampshire, for example, independents can also vote. Figuring out which independents are likely to vote in a Republican primary makes the task all the harder.

And the third problem is that of new voters. If people who have never voted Republican before or simply haven't voted before decide to vote for the first time, they may not show up in polls until election day.

There is no doubt that Donald Trump will bring in new voters to the Republican primary process. But identifying who they are and how many is nearly impossible. They can't be vetted as other GOP voters might by asking if they have voted in past primaries. It is hard to gauge their reliability. But Trump does seem to be drawing a lot of new voters, and I have a feeling it may not be reflected in the polls.

And lastly there is the matter of passion. Voters who are more passionate about their candidate are more likely to actually go out and vote for them. I have seen no surveys about "passion", but I did see this:

In this week’s Quinnipiac poll, nearly half, 46 percent, of Trump backers said their minds were made up. That’s greater than the percentage of voters who chose Carson (26 percent), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (33 percent), or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (23 percent).

I'm going to take a leap and say that "minds made up" correlate with passion. It makes sense that a person who says they are committed to a candidate is more likely to vote than someone who says they are not strongly committed to him. In that case it seems likely from the above that more of Donald Trump's supporters will turn out and vote relative to the other candidates.

That means Trump may not really be between 27% and 36% in the polls; he may be even higher.

(Abridged version originally published in AT)



Related articles:
Trump says Jews won't vote for him because they can't control him with their money

GOP advises senators to practice being genuine like Donald Trump

You will never guess why the GOP Establishment isn't running ads against Trump








Does global warming cause Islamic terrorism, or does Islamic terrorism cause global warming?


President Obama says that global warming can cause terrorism (he still can't bring himself to say the "I" word).
CONTINUE READING

Related articles:
Who is better on global warming, Jeb Bush or Vladimir Putin?

Global Warming could liquidate Ayatolahs, Islamic State

By worshipping "science guy", liberals dumb down science and language




The only way Hillary can be certain that Bill did not commit rape


Hillary, the strongest advocate for women and girls, is starting to get questions about her husband's alleged raping and molestation of women and girls.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Grand Mufti of Chappaqua excommunicates millions of ISIS Muslims

Hillary proposes turning coal mines into farms and dot coms

Accused Rapist affirms Hillary Clinton is "Honest and Trustworthy"



Trump says Jews won't vote for him because they can't control him with their money


Donald Trump, speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), repeatedly said that Jews won't vote for him because, since he wasn't accepting donations, they would not be able to control him with their money.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
GOP advises senators to practice being genuine like Donald Trump

You will never guess why the GOP Establishment isn't running ads against Trump

GOP NH Chairwoman with record of failure attacks Trump's successes



GOP advises senators to practice being genuine like Donald Trump


A memo written by a senior GOP staffer advises senators to try to sound as honest and sincere as Donald Trump.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
You will never guess why the GOP Establishment isn't running ads against Trump

GOP NH Chairwoman with record of failure attacks Trump's successes

Rubio and Bush advisors call Trump a fascist



Can Cruz close the welfare spigot hard enough to make illegals self-deport?


Self-deportation was the mantra of the Mitt Romney campaign. At the time, it was seen as a kinder and gentler alternative to forcibly deporting illegal aliens, because even Republicans became afraid of being supportive of enforcing our immigration laws, for fear of being viewed as cruel or heartless by the liberal media.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Ted Cruz's solution to illegal aliens: self-deportation

The current state of the GOP presidential race

Ted Cruz flipflops on legal immigration, implies most illegals can stay



Marco Rubio probably has about 150 delegates before first vote cast



CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Rubio PAC spends $40,000 to find out if Rubio fathered an "undocumented" child

Marco Rubio implies if terrorists attack, Ted Cruz is to blame... not himself

Rubio ad presents compelling reason to elect his father president



You will never guess why the GOP Establishment isn't running ads against Trump


Remember the "September blitz"? There were rumors that after the summer break the big money, Chamber of Commerce establishment Republican interests with their Super PACS were going to cut down Donald Trump with millions of dollars of negative ads. With the exception of one ad buy from the Club for Growth, it didn't happen.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
GOP NH Chairwoman with record of failure attacks Trump's successes

Rubio and Bush advisors call Trump a fascist

Kasich shamelessly repeats liberal slanders in new anti-Trump ad



Mark Zuckerberg plans to toss 44 billion dollars in the garbage


If you were wealthy and your first child was just born, what would be the first thing you would do? Give away all your money so your child would get almost nothing, right? Well, that's the decent parental instincts of Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg, who penned an open letter to his newly born daughter telling her that she would never, ever see 99% of the 45 Facebook billion dollars he had made. His daughter Max, who was given a boy's name perhaps in the hope of encouraging transgenderism down the line, will surely appreciate his noble gesture.
CONTINUE READING

Muslims kill gays, and liberals blame Christians


The HuffPo has a story about homosexuals being executed by ISIS, and beaten and tortured by "mainstream" Muslims in the Middle East. But more astonishing than that is the comments section to the article, where the vast majority of the comments ignore the perpetrators of these attacks but claim Christians want to do the same.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Ben Carson meeting with Syrian refugees... to learn their point of view

NYT says Middle Eastern Muslims, not Middle Eastern Muslim Refugees, commit terrorism

NJ Muslims celebrating 9/11 has now unhappened... and Ben Carson agrees



Rubio PAC spends $40,000 to find out if Rubio fathered an "undocumented" child


A Super PAC supporting Marco Rubio has spent $40,000 to find out whether Marco Rubio fathered a child out of wedlock.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Marco Rubio implies if terrorists attack, Ted Cruz is to blame... not himself

Rubio ad presents compelling reason to elect his father president

Marco Rubio wants to defeat ISIS by arming ISIS and fighting its enemies




Next Page





Search Topic Areas
o Donald Trump
o Best articles
o Abortion
o Economy
o Education
o Environment
o Hairy feminists
o Gay agenda
o Gun control
o Illegal aliens
o Pop culture
o Radical islam
o Republicans
o Reverse Racism
o Ted Cruz
o Transvestite agenda




NewsMachete.com Copyright 2015
Feedback


Who is NewsMachete?

Privacy policy
Search Topic Areas
o Donald Trump
o Best articles
o Abortion
o Economy
o Education
o Environment
o Hairy feminists
o Gay agenda
o Gun control
o Illegal aliens
o Pop culture
o Radical islam
o Republicans
o Reverse Racism
o Ted Cruz
o Transvestite agenda