Ted Cruz will win Iowa because...


Iowa talkshow host and admitted Cruz supporter Steve Deace, who has a solid track record of predicting the winner of the Iowa caucuses, makes the argument that Ted Cruz will win:

we have FOX as well as CNN producing polls this week that show 300,000 Iowans are voting in the Iowa Caucuses, and therefore Trump with a double-digit lead. Allow me to put those projected turnout numbers in perspective:

--That's about a 200% voter increase from the highest Iowa Caucus turnout ever back in 2008.
--The most voters we've had in a primary (which always has higher turnout) in Iowa this century is only 230,000. And our last U.S. Senate primary had only roughly 150,000 voters in 2014.
--There are actually 11,000 fewer registered Republicans in Iowa this January than in January 2015.

Click here to see the rest of this article
Given those facts, I simply do not believe the projected turnout models in these polls. I have no idea why these polls have suddenly produced these massive turnout models in their weighting in the last week. Perhaps it's as simple as Trump has consistently polled lower in Iowa than everywhere else, and they're concerned with getting caught with their pants down come caucus night. I don't know. But there is absolutely zero evidence on the ground you're going to see a turnout that massive.

And regarding top line public polls and their history in Iowa, here's some history to remember:

--In the final week of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, there were eight public polls released that had Hillary Clinton winning, and one even had John Edwards winning. Barack Obama's organization won by almost eight points, and out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by almost seven points.

--In the final week of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, there were four public polls released that had Mitt Romney winning, and he lost by nine points. Mike Huckabee's organization out-performed the Real Clear Politics polling average by six points.

He goes on to predict a Cruz victory.

My view on this? In 2008 and 2012 the candidate who had the organized support of evangelicals--Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum--both won. And Santorum won even though he was an awful candidate. Ted Cruz is ten times as charismatic as Santorum, and he has the backing of the evangelicals. My guess is that Deace is correct and like 2008 and 2012, the candidate backed by organized evangelicals, Ted Cruz, will win. And it will be all the more devastating if he wins while Trump is ahead in Iowa, much worse for Trump than if Cruz simply won as fulfilling expectations to win. It's that kind of unexpected event that will give Cruz more momentum for later primaries.



Related articles:
Ted Cruz's radical new idea for overhauling the Endangered Species Act

Ted Cruz's plan to "bring jobs back from China" is better than Trump's

Ted Cruz makes Donald Trump his Mitch








Trump: "A conservative is a person who conserves"


Donald Trump, when asked what the definition of conservatism is, said, in part, that the conservatism is defined by... one who conserves.
CONTINUE READING

Related articles:
Can Trump really win the nomination with only a third of the vote?

Could Trump shoot himself in the head on Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters?

What a million dollar potato photo has in common with Donald Trump




Can Trump really win the nomination with only a third of the vote?


I have hypothesized that Donald Trump can win the GOP nomination with only 32% of the vote. That's based on the theory that he will get almost 32% of the delgates in the states that award delegates proportionally, and that he will win all the winner take all states because the vote for other candidates will be below 32%
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Could Trump shoot himself in the head on Fifth Avenue and not lose any voters?

What a million dollar potato photo has in common with Donald Trump

You'll never guess who is blackmailing Mark Levin



Two more reasons to be disappointed in Joni Ernst


I was suspicious of "Tea Party" senator Joni Ernst from the moment she first ran for the senate. Maybe it was the way she spoke in vague platitudes. Maybe it was her LGBTQ hairdo. Maybe it was the way she rode a motorcycle to show she was a regular, er, guy.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Guess which campaign offices in Iowa are busiest?

Nikki Haley uses State of Union response to bash Trump and praise illegals

Pat Toomey working hard to get Obama judges confirmed



Guess which campaign offices in Iowa are busiest?


The nerds at fivethirtyeight.com checked out the campaign offices in Iowa to see which was busiest. Here's what they found:
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Nikki Haley uses State of Union response to bash Trump and praise illegals

Pat Toomey working hard to get Obama judges confirmed

Who will be left after New Hampshire?



What a million dollar potato photo has in common with Donald Trump


A man sold a photo of a potato. For a million dollars. You can see the photo above. I have superimposed the potato on Donald Trump's face.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
You'll never guess who is blackmailing Mark Levin

Bob Dole knows the word "cataclysmic"!

Trump tweeted support for amnesty in 2013, 2015, but Trumpbots don't care



Will Barbara Bush's endorsement persuade other Bush family members to vote for Jeb?


Barbara Bush has cut a commercial endorsing her son Jeb Bush for President. Do you think that will persuade other members of the Bush family to vote for Jeb?
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Jeb Bush says he's in second place in the polls

Nutty things Jeb Bush is trying to bring life to his dead campaign

Jeb Bush & Marco Rubio expected to get zero delegates from Florida



Ted Cruz's radical new idea for overhauling the Endangered Species Act


Many Republicans have complained about the Endangered Species Act (ESA). If an animal on the endangered species act list is found on your property, the value of your land, for development purposes, goes to zero.
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Ted Cruz's plan to "bring jobs back from China" is better than Trump's

Ted Cruz makes Donald Trump his Mitch

Cruz continues to lead in Iowa polls, despite left wing Trump attacks



You'll never guess who is blackmailing Mark Levin


Mark Levin made a startling announcement on his show; someone is trying to blackmail him, because his girlfriend's son works for the Cruz campaign. Levin wouldn't say who the blackmailer is, so let's play the game of "Clue" and speculate:
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Levin: Trump's support for ethanol is crony capitalism at its worst

Mark Levin says Donald Trump attacks all conservatives

Mark Levin declares war on Donald Trump!



Bob Dole knows the word "cataclysmic"!


Former Viagra pitchman Bob Dole said that if Ted Cruz were nominated,
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
You'll never guess who is blackmailing Mark Levin

Trump tweeted support for amnesty in 2013, 2015, but Trumpbots don't care

Rand Paul calls Trump Gollum



Trump tweeted support for amnesty in 2013, 2015, but Trumpbots don't care


This is what Donald Trump said in 2013:
CONTINUE READING Related articles:
Bob Dole knows the word "cataclysmic"!

Rand Paul calls Trump Gollum

Sarah Palin endorses the one of the way that it is




Next Page





Search Topic Areas
o Donald Trump
o Best articles
o Abortion
o Economy
o Education
o Environment
o Hairy feminists
o Gay agenda
o Gun control
o Illegal aliens
o Pop culture
o Radical islam
o Republicans
o Reverse Racism
o Ted Cruz
o Transvestite agenda




NewsMachete.com Copyright 2015
Feedback


Who is NewsMachete?

Privacy policy
Search Topic Areas
o Donald Trump
o Best articles
o Abortion
o Economy
o Education
o Environment
o Hairy feminists
o Gay agenda
o Gun control
o Illegal aliens
o Pop culture
o Radical islam
o Republicans
o Reverse Racism
o Ted Cruz
o Transvestite agenda