The only way Ted Cruz can possibly win the GOP nomination


Let's face it, despite conservative cheerleading for Ted Cruz, his chances of getting the nomination aren't great.

He's behind Trump in the delegate count after the voting is nearly finished in the region that is supposed to be strongest for Cruz: the south. Now we're going into northern states that are winner-take-all where he doesn't have a chance against Trump, even if Marco Rubio pulls out. Cruz can continue to get delegates in some states, but his chances of getting enough delegates to win the nomination are just about zero. We can cheer him if he wins tiny states like Maine and Alaska, but we can't close our eyes to Trump winning big states like Michigan and probably Florida and certainly New York.

However, there is still a chance (a small chance) that Cruz can get enough delegates to deny Trump a majority of the delegates, especially if Cruz wins California. If Trump goes to the convention with the most delegates but not a majority, the rest will be held by Cruz, Rubio, and the RINO superdelegates. Who would Rubio and the RINOS (or, for sake of simplicity, let's just call them the "Establishment") support?

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I used to think they would support Trump, because I think in governing they would like Trump's policies. Trump is eager to cut deals and get along with delegates. That suits the establishment just fine.

The only problem is that while Trump would govern as they would like, his rhetoric is inflammatory and the establishment is concerned that he could never get elected, and that he might drag down Republicans in Congress with him.

The Establishment hates Ted Cruz but they think he at least has a chance against Hillary Clinton. That's why some metrosexual Republicans like Linsey Graham are starting to turn to Ted Cruz.

The Establishment would love to have a moderate candidate. But there is no way if the GOP convention has 80% of the delegates for Trump and Cruz will be able to nominate Mitt Romney. The establishment's only real choice will be to throw in with Trump, or Cruz. And to preserve their own congressional seats, I think they may throw in with Cruz, however much they hate him.

All this depends on Trump not getting a majority of the delegates, which still may not happen. And if Trump doesn't get the nomination, there is a real chance he will go third party. It will be too late for him to organize his own party, but he could take the nomination from one of the existing third parties. Would that threat be enough to blackmail the GOP to give him the nomination? We'll have to see....



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