There's something weird about GOP Presidential polling in California


California could be pivotal in the upcoming GOP Presidential primary. Most of the delegates are awarded on a "winner take all" scheme based on the top vote getter in each congressional district. Still, the statewide popularity of Trump and Cruz will probably determine many of the district results.

But it's hard to know the relative strength of Trump and Cruz because recent polling in California has been sparse, and contradictory. There have been only two polls in March, and both give conflicting, and odd results.

There's a poll from an organization called "Landslide" which claims that Trump has 38% of the vote, Cruz has 22%, Kasich has 20%, and the now-defunct Rubio has (had?) 10%. Then there's a poll from Smith Johnson Research which claims Trump has only 25%, Cruz has 20%, Kasich 15%, and Rubio 18%.

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While the figures for Cruz and Kasich are relatively stable, there is a wide disparity between Trump's standing in the two polls. Is Trump closer to 25% or 38%? There is no way to know for sure, but when you look at older polling, one sees that Trump has been consistently under 25%.

The other thing that is odd about these results is that when you add up the numbers you don't get 100%. When you add up the Landslide poll you get only 90%. I suppose 10% of voters could be undecided. But when you add up the Smith Johnson poll numbers for all the candidates you only get 78%. Can 22% of California voters really be undecided, this late in the primary season? I don't think so.

My guess is that Trump is closer to the 25% figure than that 38% figure. I also think most of Rubio's 10% or 18% is going to migrate to Cruz. And since Trump has total media saturation, and is very well known, if people are still undecided, I suspect they will vote against Trump. We have been seeing that late voter deciders have often voted against him in large numbers. If that's true, Ted Cruz could win most of the congressional districts in California. He could even get the highest statewide plurality and get extra statewide delegates.

More polling in this crucial state would be welcome.



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