Ted Cruz is right where he needs to be in California


Donald Trump is polling around 40% in California. Ted Cruz is polling around 32%. That's right where he needs to be.

If it's one thing we've learned about polling, it's that polls of Donald Trump's support tend to be pretty accurate. And the other thing we've learned is that polls of Ted Cruz tend to underestimate his support by an average of 6-8%, usually because undecideds and some Kasich supporters all break for Ted. So the real level of support is probably 40% for Trump and 38-40% for Cruz.

In order to deny Trump his 1237 delegates, Donald Trump needs to fail to win more than a small majority of delegates in California. With those numbers he will probably win the projected 93 delegates of the 172 delegates, a bare majority. That will be insufficient to win Trump the 1237 total he needs, even if he gets nearly all the delegates in New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Connecticut and Delaware, as he is expected to. The problem for Trump is that his margin is so tight that small losses are devastating. He was supposed to win 25 delegates in Wisconsin; he won 6. He is supposed to win 7 in Colorado; he may win zero.

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Remember, polls in Wisconsin had Cruz ahead of Trump by only 4-5 points; he won by 13 points. If the polls are off by similar margins in California as they have been in many other states, Trump will not get his 1237.



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