Trump campaign manager: "Trump is behind"



Donald Trump's campaign manager said yesterday that Trump is behind Hillary Clinton in the polls. This is contrary to what a lot of Donald Trump supporters believe.

Some believe that a wave of new voters will come out to vote who are not being measured in the polls. Others believe that polls are systematically biased against Mr. Trump.

We are behind,” Conway said on Meet the Press.

Trump has fallen behind rival Hillary Clinton, who is up by double digits in some recent polls.

Some point to a few national polls like LA Times and TIPP which show Trump ahead. But national polls will not decide the election, as Al Gore could tell you.

To become President, Trump needs to win Florida (where Clinton is ahead in the last six polls) , Nevada (Clinton leading in 6 out of 7 polls), North Carolina (Clinton leading in all recent polls), and either Colorado or Pennsylvania.

In Colorado, Clinton is leading in 10 of the last 10 points by an average of about 8 points. In Pennsylvania, Clinton also leads in all ten of the most recent polls by a similarly large margin.

Who are these polling companies who took these polls in Colorado and Pennsylvania, and how biased were their predictions in 2012? Some of the polls showing Clinton widely ahead were conducted by Quinnipiac, Yougov, Marist, Mason Dixon, and CNN.

In 2012 CNN's polls were found to be biased towards the Republicans by .6%, in other words, pretty accurate. Marist polls were biased towards Republicans by an average of 1%. Yougov was biased towards Republicans 1.1%. Quinnipiac polls were biased towards Democrats .3%. Mason Dixon polls overprojected Republican success by 2.2%.

So these same pollsters who are showing Trump behind were actually quite accurate in 2012. People also cite polls by TIPP showing Trump ahead, and TIPP was also accurate in 2012, but the TIPP tracking poll is a national one, and doesn't speak to Trump's chances of winning individual states.

Exit questions:

1) Is Trump's own campaign manager mistaken when she says he is behind? If so, why would he continue to employ her when she says such things?

2) Are the pollsters showing Trump way behind in key states all (10 or more independent polling organizations, including Republican pollster Gravis), going to be wrong in this election, even though most were accurate in 2012?

I would like to see Hillary Clinton lose this election. But I also want to go into this election analyzing facts logically. For Donald Trump to be ahead, everyone else, including his own campaign manager, has to be wrong.

[originally published in AT]



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