Trump is in big trouble in Iowa|
The two key ingredients to winning a primary are voter enthusiasm, and a getting out the vote operation. In a caucus, however, the organization is even more important. You have to identify people in advance who will agree to go to caucuses, which is much, much more involved and time consuming than simply voting. It can be a process that goes on for some time and only committed caucus goers will go in for that. That's why to be serious you need an organization in every district and committed people you know by name who are going to show up.
Ted Cruz has that in Iowa, but Donald Trump does not.
Mr. Trump’s Iowa director predicted that he would recruit a leader for each of the state’s 1,681 Republican precincts by Thanksgiving. Instead, the first major training session for precinct leaders, heavily promoted in emails and conference calls, drew only about 80 people to West Des Moines last weekend, with about 50 participating online.
For its training session last weekend, the Trump campaign had sought out people who had attended rallies to be caucus leaders. The modest participation for the session in person and online contradicted Mr. Laudner’s promise to have nearly 1,700 caucus leaders in place byThanksgiving, as he told NBC News in October.
Some of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals have spent months calling and knocking on doors to identify potential supporters to draw them out to caucuses, but Mr. Trump does not appear to have invested in this crucial “voter ID” strategy until recently.
The Trump campaign hopes to attract a surge of independents and disaffected Democrats on caucus night, but the latest data from the Iowa secretary of state show no significant growth in Republican registrations.
Of eight people interviewed at a Trump rally in Waterloo in early October, all gave the Trump campaign their emails. Contacted recently by a reporter, four of the eight said they had not received any follow-up. The others received a mass email asking them to volunteer for Mr. Trump, but they were uninterested....
Cruz and Trump are neck and neck in the polls in Iowa, but because Cruz has the much more developed organization, I think he is much more likely to win Iowa.
However, I do not believe a victory in Iowa will translate into a victory in New Hampshire. The political terrain there is simply too hostile to Cruz. The most important battle, I think, will be fought in South Carolina, shortly after New Hampshire, where Trump has been holding a big lead... until today.
Trump, formerly with poll numbers in the 30's, is down to the 20's in South Carolina. And Ted Cruz, who was formerly in the low teens, has just jumped up to 21% in the latest poll, only seven points behind Donald Trump. It is not hard to imagine that a Ted Cruz victory in Iowa could snowball into a victory in South Carolina well.
If Ted Cruz wins South Carolina, he is on his way to winning the nomination. Keep in mind that if Trump does not get an outright majority of the delegates (the magic 32% of the vote I keep talking about), he is unlikely to be the nominee, even if he has the most delegates. Imagine if Trump has, say 45% of the delegates, and Cruz has 35% and Marco Rubio has 20%. Trump could offer Cruz the Vice Presidency for his support, but a much more likely scenario is that Cruz would offer Rubio the Vice Presidency for his own support.
There are possibly some tough times ahead for Donald Trump. If he loses Iowa, it's trouble, and if he loses South Carolina, it's big, big trouble.
(Abridged version originally published in AT)
Tell us what you think on Facebook.
Who's up and who's down in the GOP Presidential Race
Have you seen the Cruz & Trump Star Wars videos?
Trump supports affirmative action, corporate welfare, and "get along" with the Establishment
US Public Schools educating Mexicans living in Mexico
I was reading an article about a Calexico, California private school on the border with Mexico which has a lot of students who pay tuition and come across the border every day from Mexico, and this seemingly innocuous sentence caught my eye:
Liberals say 24 year olds should be tried as kids but vote as adults
Liberals have been gradually watering down the criminal justice system. They have launched a campaign to eliminate bail; they want drug addicts and drug dealers released from jail; and they certainly don't want 16 and 17 year olds accused of violent crimes to be charged as adults. Now in a new campaign, liberals are calling for 18 and 19 year olds and even people in their 20's to be charged as children, on the theory that their brains are not fully developed.
Why does Trump's Sanctuary City policy have no teeth?
As Rick Moran noted, President Trump's threat to cut off funding for Sanctuary Cities really about a slice of funding of a very small $27 million dollar pie, because only one federal grant program would be subject to this rule. In practice a major city might lose a five or six figure grant. But that's pocket change for big cities with budgets in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. I was surprised to learn that Trump's threat to "cut off" funding doesn't even apply to all Justice Department grants, just the ones in this one tiny program.
Trump welcomes Syrian illegal aliens Australia doesn't want
It's bad enough that Trump violated his own campaign promise and continues the illegal, unconstitutional "Dreamer" amnesty created by Obama. But now Trump is going out of his way to take the most dangerous illegal aliens that other countries don't want!
Schumer plays Trump for a fool on Obamacare, Border Wall funding
Is there a passage in "The Art of the Deal" which states, "Give your final, best offer first. Then, when it's rejected, start negotiating from there with your opponent to give him everything he wants."? No? Because that's the strategy employed by President Trump in dealing with Chuck Schumer.
"Science" marchers demand right to suck on taxpayers' teats
Are you against government funded science? If you are, you must be against all science! That's the conclusion of a large number of parasites and freaks who went to giant costume parties all around the world dressed in white coats to give them a patina of authority.
Trump tells Dreamers to "Rest Easy"
President Trump, facing criticism for deporting exactly one "Dreamer" out of thousands, wanted to reassure children of illegal aliens, some of them in their 30's, that he was not going to deport them.
Women's prisons control bad girls with tampon reward system
The New York Times spilled a goodly amount of ink talking about a very pressing issue: how tampons are used to reward women prisoners who are well behaved.
Over 90% pass citizenship test, with answers given out in advance
Not just anyone can become a citizen of the United States. You first have to come into the country legally. Or illegally, and get amnesty. Then you have to apply for citizenship. And there is a brutal civics test! It is so difficult, that the government decided to give out the answers in advance.
Mentally challenged border hopping shoplifting Dreamer deported
A so-called "Dreamer" was deported in February, the first Dreamer deported by the Trump Administration. President Trump, who had promised to end the unconstitutional program when running for president, went back on his promise after being elected, so the fact that even one Dreamer was deported is big news: that's one more Dreamer than Obama would have deported. You see, elections do matter!
Elizabeth Warren's book says socialism will work like it's never worked before
Elizabeth Warren's new book, "This Fight is Our Fight", says that ordinary folk can do better economically if we only had more government control and less individual freedom.
NEA taxpayer dollars helps artists feel good about themselves
The Washington Post tried to create what it thought was a clever agit/prop video in favor of the National Endowment for the Arts. Rather than showing NEA funding in big cities, the video explored funding largely in rural, conservative Indiana, represented by Republican congressmen. The hope was to whip up support among Republicans to save the NEA.
Will Trump's reversal on Syrian refugees make him a one term President?
Supporters of Donald Trump, many of whom prominently campaigned for his election, are outraged by all the campaign promises he has reversed himself on--NATO, military action in Syria, the Federal Reserve, and the repeal of Obamacare, to name a few. But the straw that may break the camel's back is the issue of immigration and border security.
Trump flipflops on Syria, NATO, China, the Fed, EXIM Bank
President Trump has changed his positions on Syria, NATO, China, the Fed, and the EXIM Bank (not to mention Obamacare repeal and prosecuting Hillary Clinton), all within the past few days.
How many buzzwords can the liberal media use in one sentence?
I was reading a very poorly written LA Times article about North Carolina legislators introducing a bill to define marriage as between a man and a woman, and was surprised to read the following sentence:
Lib Media desperate to declare White House egg roll a failure
The liberal media, so desperate for anti-Trump stories to feed into its narrative, is looking to use something as innocuous as the White House Easter egg roll as a yardstick to show "yet another" failure of the Trump administration. There are many legitimate grounds to criticize the Trump administration on ("Dreamers", more Syrian refugees, not supporting full Obamacare repeal), but an Easter egg roll? Come on!
Medical Schools teaching doctors to give hormones to "transgendered" pre-teens
Medicine continues to advance! That may explain why Yale Medical School is teaching doctors in training to give hormones and puberty blockers to kids who claim they are "transgendered".
Meet the liberals President Trump is considering for Chief of Staff
President Trump is reportedly considering replacing Reince Priebus, his chief of staff, and Steve Bannon, his chief strategist with a new chief of staff.
Kushner "Democrats" rising, Bannon "nationalists" falling in Trump White House
Steve Bannon is said to be in the ideological fight of his life with President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and not winning at the moment.
Emmys under fire for limiting award categories to men and women
The Emmys are being criticized for limiting nominations to actors and actresses. In fact, if you go back in history and look at past recipients of awards, 100% have been either men or women. Obviously, there is a pattern of ingrained gender discrimination going on here. And one actress, or actor, or something in between, is calling them out on it.
Trump considering screening visitors by their Facebook pages & phone records
There are reports that the Trump Administration is considering what it is calling "extreme vetting", which would seem to consist of asking potential visitors for their phones to see who they've been calling and access to their social media accounts.
Trumpcare 2.0 isn't much better than its predecessor
President Trump said if the Ryan "Obamacare Lite" bill failed, that there would be no more efforts to repeal Obamacare. He then proceeded to trash the Freedom Caucus and to demand their ouster in the 2018 primaries.
Jared Kushner is an embarrassment to this administration
What if former President Obama had sent Michelle to negotiate for him at a NATO summit? What if Bill Clinton had sent one of his half brothers to make peace in the Middle East?
Feminists worry "Pussy hats" marginalize men disguised as women
A feminist with three names, Phoebe Maltz Bovy (I pity Mr., or Mrs. Bovy), writing in the WaPo worried that the use of "pussy hats" in anti-Trump demonstrations marginalizes men disguised as women, since men disguised as women do not have vaginas, and "pussy hats" are symbols of vaginas, as well as many feminists' secret desire to be groped by a man as wealthy as Donald Trump.
Boston mayor raises transgender flag and says pledge of aggrievance
The "Men are Men and Women are Women" bus rolled into Boston, and the Mayor of Boston, Marty Walsh, was not pleased. The bus was staffed by activists who were spreading the word that people born as men were always men, and people born as women are always women. Yes, even Rachel Maddow.
Search Topic Areas
o Phony global warming
o Gun control
o Hillary Rotten Clinton
o Homosexual agenda
o Illegal aliens
o Jeb Bush
o Marco Rubio
o Pop culture
o Radical islam
o Rand Paul
o Reverse Racism
o Scott Walker
o Ted Cruz
o Transvestite agenda
NewsMachete.com Copyright 2015