Trump is in big trouble in Iowa


The two key ingredients to winning a primary are voter enthusiasm, and a getting out the vote operation. In a caucus, however, the organization is even more important. You have to identify people in advance who will agree to go to caucuses, which is much, much more involved and time consuming than simply voting. It can be a process that goes on for some time and only committed caucus goers will go in for that. That's why to be serious you need an organization in every district and committed people you know by name who are going to show up.

Ted Cruz has that in Iowa, but Donald Trump does not.

Mr. Trump’s Iowa director predicted that he would recruit a leader for each of the state’s 1,681 Republican precincts by Thanksgiving. Instead, the first major training session for precinct leaders, heavily promoted in emails and conference calls, drew only about 80 people to West Des Moines last weekend, with about 50 participating online.

For its training session last weekend, the Trump campaign had sought out people who had attended rallies to be caucus leaders. The modest participation for the session in person and online contradicted Mr. Laudner’s promise to have nearly 1,700 caucus leaders in place byThanksgiving, as he told NBC News in October.

Some of Mr. Trump’s Republican rivals have spent months calling and knocking on doors to identify potential supporters to draw them out to caucuses, but Mr. Trump does not appear to have invested in this crucial “voter ID” strategy until recently.

The Trump campaign hopes to attract a surge of independents and disaffected Democrats on caucus night, but the latest data from the Iowa secretary of state show no significant growth in Republican registrations.

Of eight people interviewed at a Trump rally in Waterloo in early October, all gave the Trump campaign their emails. Contacted recently by a reporter, four of the eight said they had not received any follow-up. The others received a mass email asking them to volunteer for Mr. Trump, but they were uninterested....

Cruz and Trump are neck and neck in the polls in Iowa, but because Cruz has the much more developed organization, I think he is much more likely to win Iowa.

However, I do not believe a victory in Iowa will translate into a victory in New Hampshire. The political terrain there is simply too hostile to Cruz. The most important battle, I think, will be fought in South Carolina, shortly after New Hampshire, where Trump has been holding a big lead... until today.

Trump, formerly with poll numbers in the 30's, is down to the 20's in South Carolina. And Ted Cruz, who was formerly in the low teens, has just jumped up to 21% in the latest poll, only seven points behind Donald Trump. It is not hard to imagine that a Ted Cruz victory in Iowa could snowball into a victory in South Carolina well.

If Ted Cruz wins South Carolina, he is on his way to winning the nomination. Keep in mind that if Trump does not get an outright majority of the delegates (the magic 32% of the vote I keep talking about), he is unlikely to be the nominee, even if he has the most delegates. Imagine if Trump has, say 45% of the delegates, and Cruz has 35% and Marco Rubio has 20%. Trump could offer Cruz the Vice Presidency for his support, but a much more likely scenario is that Cruz would offer Rubio the Vice Presidency for his own support.

There are possibly some tough times ahead for Donald Trump. If he loses Iowa, it's trouble, and if he loses South Carolina, it's big, big trouble.

(Abridged version originally published in AT)



Tell us what you think on Facebook.
Facebook Twitter Email


Related articles:
Who's up and who's down in the GOP Presidential Race

Have you seen the Cruz & Trump Star Wars videos?

Trump supports affirmative action, corporate welfare, and "get along" with the Establishment






GOP pushing bill to reduce jail time for armed robbers and drug dealers


What often happens when Democrats run the government? As "Sideshow Bob" says in the clip below:
CONTINUE READING


How can banks discriminate against blacks in a free market economy?


The PBS Newshour, which I love for telling me what to think and when to think it, had a piece yesterday about a black lesbian woman who claimed she couldn't get a mortgage because racist banks wouldn't lend to a black person. When her Japanese lesbian partner applied for a loan, however, she quickly got it.
CONTINUE READING


Trump reportedly pleads with Congress to raise gas taxes on all Americans


In a closed door meeting President Trump repeatedly asked Congressmen to raise the gax tax. President Trump is so eager to raise taxes that he even volunteered to take the blame for it:
CONTINUE READING


Is Trump well-served by saying "I'm totally opposed to domestic violence"?


When Richard Nixon said, "I am not a crook", what did most people think?
CONTINUE READING


How many people did useless heart stents kill?


For years the "gold standard" for treating clogged arteries of the heart was to perform very invasive surgery to insert a small plastic tube, or stent, into the clogged artery to reduce the blockage. It sounds like common sense, doesn't it?
CONTINUE READING


Why does replacing food stamps with food so anger liberals?


President Trump has proposed replacing some food stamp grants with actual food. This has curiously enraged liberals, who you would think would be delighted to see "hungry" people getting food. The program in question is called "SNAP", which I think, due to repeated accounts of fraud, is more appropriately called SUCK (Stealing Unearned Cash Knowingly).
CONTINUE READING


Trump calls for money for border wall by 2028, a week too late


President Trump's budget calls for funding for his border wall. Kudos, President Trump, mega-kudos to you!
CONTINUE READING


Let's replace the words "Trump" with "Obama" in biased headlines


The liberal media, which bills itself as non-partisan, is running especially rabid now that President Trump has released his budget containing modest proposed cuts for certain agencies. Looking at the ferocity of the biased headlines, I wonder what the headlines would look like if Trump's name were replaced with Obama, as well as adjusting for circumstances.
CONTINUE READING


Study: Immigration enforcement gives illegal aliens PTSD


Would it surprise you to learn that there is not just one or two but dozens of studies examining the psychological effects of enforcing the law against illegal aliens? Apparently, enforcing immigration law causes all kinds of effects on illegal aliens; it makes them anxious, depressed, and, according to one study, victims of post traumatic stress disorder.
CONTINUE READING


New budget allocates no money for border wall for two years


In addition to being a an enormously bloated deficit busting spending bill, the two year budget that President Trump signed allocates zero dollars for construction of a border wall for the next two years. So unless Mexico suddenly writes us a check, there will be not an inch constructed of a new border wall three full years into President Trump's term of office.
CONTINUE READING


Medicaid recipients find $1 premiums too confusing to pay


Imagine if you were poor and you got Medicaid, heavily subsidized by the taxpayer, but you had to pay between $1 and $15 a month in premiums. Wouldn't that be confusing? For many people it is so confusing that they don't understand how to pay and end up being kicked off Medicaid.
CONTINUE READING


If Rand Paul were President, we wouldn't have this Democratic-inspired budget


Senator Rand Paul succeeded in briefly shutting down the government last night when he demanded a vote on restoring the budget spending caps before voting on the GOP deficit busting bill. By the time you read this, however, it is expected that a coalition of Democrats and RINO Republicans will have succeeded in passing a monstrosity of a budget bill which, although it will increase defense spending, will also increase domestic spending by hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years, and is estimated to create a 1.2 trillion dollar deficit in 2019. That's $1,200,000,000,000 added to the debt in one year alone.
CONTINUE READING


GOP spending $400 million to teach pregnant women how to navigate


If you're on a cruise ship and you learn that the captain is a pregnant woman, wouldn't you still expect that she would know how to steer the boat? I would!
CONTINUE READING


A GOP House, a GOP Senate, and a GOP President cannot cut a penny in spending


The budget agreement reached by the Republican House and Republican Senate would increase spending over 500 billion dollars over the next two years. It does not appear to cut a penny from domestic spending; in fact, along with military increases, it increases domestic spending by hundreds of billions of dollars.
CONTINUE READING


White House calls for citizenship for "Lazy Dreamers"


One of the many conspiracy theories floating around to justify President Trump's call for citizenship for 1.8 million illegal aliens is that Trump will vet them thoroughly and permit a number far less than 1.8 million to be granted citizenship.
CONTINUE READING


Would "Black Panther" have a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score if it were "White Panther"?


The liberal media is going ga-ga over the upcoming superhero movie "Black Panther". What makes Black Panther different from other Marvel films is that the protagonist, as well as most of the cast, are black, and Africa is portrayed as a super technologically advanced continent filled with spaceships. As of this writing the film has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. What are the odds of every single film reviewer agreeing on this film... or any film?
CONTINUE READING


Can Barbara Comstock get reelected running like a Democrat?


Barbara Comstock is a GOP congresswoman from Northern Virginia. Political scientists appropriately call her district "marginal", rather than "wholesome", because it is infested with a growing number of leftists, ideologically toxic fallout blown westwards from the work-free drug zone of Washington D.C.
CONTINUE READING


Dems think drug addicted voters can push them over the top in 2018


The votes of drug addicts could be crucial in the 2018 midterm elections. That's what Democrats think, which is why they are going all out to show their support for pot addicts.
CONTINUE READING


Warning: This article is illegal in Poland


Poland is on the verge of passing a law which will make it illegal to refer to Polish participation in the Holocaust.
CONTINUE READING


Who likes football teams staffed by foreign mercenaries?


The Philadelphia Eagles are not from Philadelphia. The New England Patriots are not from New England, much less Massachusetts.
CONTINUE READING


Phony ICE raids warn illegals in advance and catch none


ICE raided 77 businesses in California in recent days. 77 businesses! Can you guess how many illegals were caught?
CONTINUE READING


Should a father be giving his son passionate kisses on the lips?


Kisses can mean many different things to different people. Parents usually kiss their kids on the cheek. But when Dads give long, hard, passionate kisses on the lips to their sons, there is something more than a little homoerotic about it:
CONTINUE READING


Would you take a vaccine that is claimed to be "10% effective"?


A new study has concluded that this year's flu vaccine was only 10% effective.
CONTINUE READING


Will Felons and Puerto Ricans turn Florida Blue?


There are two demographic trends in Florida which may turn the state Democratic: Puerto Ricans moving to the state, and felons possibly being given the right to vote.
CONTINUE READING


Trump breaks campaign promise to send Syrian refugees home


Check out these excerpts of candidate Trump criticizing Obama for admitting so many unvettable refugees from Syria, and explicitly promising to deport them when he became president.
CONTINUE READING



Search Topic Areas
o Abortion
o Economy
o Education
o Environment
o Feminists
o Phony global warming
o Gun control
o Hillary Rotten Clinton
o Homosexual agenda
o Illegal aliens
o Jeb Bush
o Marco Rubio
o Pop culture
o Radical islam
o Rand Paul
o Republicans
o Reverse Racism
o Scott Walker
o Ted Cruz
o Transvestite agenda




NewsMachete.com Copyright 2015
Feedback

RSS

Privacy policy